Corpus ID: 235376741

Calibrating COVID-19 SEIR models with time-varying effective contact rates

@inproceedings{Gleeson2021CalibratingCS,
  title={Calibrating COVID-19 SEIR models with time-varying effective contact rates},
  author={J. Gleeson and T. Murphy and Joseph D. O’Brien and N. Friel and N. Bargary and David J. P. O’Sullivan},
  year={2021}
}
We describe the population-based SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, removed) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a time-varying effective contact rate (equivalently, a time-varying reproduction number) to model the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A crucial technical challenge in applying such models is their accurate calibration to observed data, e.g., to the… Expand
View PDF on arXiv
1 Citations
Methods Citations
1

Figures from this paper

One Citation

Citation Type

Citation Type

Assessing epidemic curves for evidence of superspreading
TLDR
This work proposes a parsimonious discrete-time branching process model for epidemic curves that incorporates heterogeneous individual reproduction numbers and concludes that the 10% most infectious index cases account for approximately 40-80% of the expected secondary infections. Expand

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 31 REFERENCES
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
TLDR
An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions. Expand
Studying the recovery procedure for the time-dependent transmission rate(s) in epidemic models
  • Anna Mummert
  • Biology, Medicine
  • Journal of mathematical biology
  • 2013
TLDR
It is shown that the β(t) recovery procedure is robust in the heterogeneous cases, producing comparable results under two different hypotheses, and a frequency analysis shows a dominant 1-year period for the multi-year influenza transmission function(s). Expand
Management strategies in a SEIR-type model of COVID 19 community spread
TLDR
This work adapts a traditional SEIR epidemic model to the specific dynamic compartments and epidemic parameters of COVID 19, as it spreads in an age-heterogeneous community, and generates predictions, and assess the efficiency of control measures, in a sustainability context. Expand
Extracting the effective contact rate of COVID-19 pandemic
TLDR
This work assumes that, at a very coarse-grained level of description, the overall effect of all the mitigation measures is that the spread of the pandemic can be described using the most basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed ($SEIR$) model but with an "effective contact rate" ($\beta$) which is time-dependent. Expand
An evaluation of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo performance to calibrate age-structured compartmental SEIR models to incidence data.
TLDR
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo's performance is robust in the presence of underreported incidences and high-dimensional complexity, and stringent assumptions on age-dependent transmission rates can be lifted in favour of more realistic representations. Expand
Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
TLDR
The results show that COVID-19 transmission likely declined in Wuhan during late January 2020, coinciding with the introduction of control measures, and it is likely many chains of transmission will fail to establish initially, but may still cause new outbreaks eventually. Expand
A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China
TLDR
Assessment of the effect of early travel restrictions adopted by the health authorities in China using an epidemic metapopulation model indicates that travel restrictions are an effective measure in the short term, however, they are ineffective when it comes to completely eliminate the disease. Expand
SEIR modeling of the COVID-19 and its dynamics
TLDR
A SEIR epidemic model for the COVID-19 is built according to some general control strategies, such as hospital, quarantine and external input, and it is found that the parameters of the proposed SEIR model are different for different scenarios. Expand
Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
TLDR
A stochastic transmission model is combined with data on cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated inWuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January, 2020, and February, 2020. Expand
brms: An R Package for Bayesian Multilevel Models Using Stan
TLDR
The brms package implements Bayesian multilevel models in R using the probabilistic programming language Stan, allowing users to fit linear, robust linear, binomial, Poisson, survival, ordinal, zero-inflated, hurdle, and even non-linear models all in a multileVEL context. Expand
...
1
2
3
4
...