Corpus ID: 235376741

Calibrating COVID-19 SEIR models with time-varying effective contact rates

  title={Calibrating COVID-19 SEIR models with time-varying effective contact rates},
  author={J. Gleeson and T. Murphy and Joseph D. O’Brien and N. Friel and N. Bargary and David J. P. O’Sullivan},
We describe the population-based SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, removed) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a time-varying effective contact rate (equivalently, a time-varying reproduction number) to model the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A crucial technical challenge in applying such models is their accurate calibration to observed data, e.g., to the… Expand

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