• DOI:10.3386/W25334
Corpus ID: 85512380

Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration

@article{Graziano2018BrexitUA,
  title={Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration},
  author={A. Graziano and Kyle Handley and N. Lim{\~a}o},
  journal={Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation Research Paper Series},
  year={2018}
}

A. Graziano, Kyle Handley, N. Limão

Published 2018

Economics

Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation Research Paper Series

We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products and asymmetric for UK and EU exporters. We estimate that a persistent doubling of the probability of Brexit at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by 15 log points on average, and… CONTINUE READING

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