Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration

  title={Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration},
  author={A. Graziano and Kyle Handley and N. Lim{\~a}o},
  journal={Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation Research Paper Series},
  • A. Graziano, Kyle Handley, N. Limão
  • Published 2018
  • Economics
  • Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation Research Paper Series
  • We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products and asymmetric for UK and EU exporters. We estimate that a persistent doubling of the probability of Brexit at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by 15 log points on average, and… CONTINUE READING
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