Breaking Out of the Coup Trap

@article{Lehoucq2014BreakingOO,
  title={Breaking Out of the Coup Trap},
  author={Fabrice Edouard Lehoucq and An{\'i}bal P{\'e}rez-Li{\~n}{\'a}n},
  journal={Comparative Political Studies},
  year={2014},
  volume={47},
  pages={1105 - 1129}
}
This article systematically assesses whether open political competition ends the coup trap. We use an original data set of coup reports, electoral competition, and socioeconomic data spanning the 20th century in 18 Latin American countries. Our models, which are robust to multiple-comparison tests, generate support for a central claim: While recent experience with military coups increases the risk of incumbents being overthrown, the establishment of open political competition ends cycles of… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

Which Democracies Will Last? Coups, Incumbent Takeovers, and the Dynamic of Democratic Consolidation

This article develops a change-point model of democratic consolidation that conceives of consolidation as a latent quality to be inferred rather than measured directly. Consolidation is hypothesized

Revolutions and the Military: Endgame Coups, Instability, and Prospects for Democracy

This article presents a systematic analysis of military coups following popular mass uprisings in nondemocratic regimes, conceptualized as endgame coups. Drawing on our original, medium-n data set of

Explaining military coups and impeachments in Latin America

We develop a unified theory of presidential instability to explain why presidents are removed from office through military coups or through legal procedures. While some causal factors motivate

When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants

Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model

Support for Coups in the Americas: Mass Norms and Democratization

Abstract Coups d’état, once a common end for democracies in the Americas, have declined sharply in recent years. This article investigates whether overall public support for coups is also in decline.

The Geography of Democratic Discontent

Understanding the determinants of support for democracy remains at the heart of many puzzles in international and comparative political economy. A central but still unresolved topic in this

The political economy of coups d’etat: a general survey and a local theory for Turkey

ABSTRACT This article surveys the political economy of coups in Turkey, examining both their economic causes and the economic consequences they seem to generate. It reminds that whether coups had a

Policy change and coups: The role of income inequality and asset specificity

Building on the models developed by Boix, Acemoglu, and Robinson on the relationship between economic structures and regime change, we develop a theory that emphasises structural characteristics of

No Easy Way Out: The Effect of Military Coups on State Repression

Military coups are often advocated as solutions for ending state-sponsored atrocities. Yet, we know little about coups’ precise consequences. This article estimates the effect of coups on state

Explaining presidential instability in Latin America: evidence from Brazil, Argentina and Ecuador

PurposeThis study attempts to figure out the factors that contributed to deposing certain elected presidents before the end of their constitutional terms, alongside tracing the new political context

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 72 REFERENCES

Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power

The transfer of power through the use of military force is a commonplace event in world affairs. Although no two coups d'etat are alike, they all have a common denominator: poverty. We analyze

The Predictability of Coups d'état: A Model with African Data

  • R. Jackman
  • Economics
    American Political Science Review
  • 1978
This paper specifies and estimates a model of the structural determinants of coups d'état for the new states of black Africa in the years from 1960 through 1975. Results indicate that (1) both social

The Mechanics of Regime Instability in Latin America

The paper is narrowly addressed to a single puzzle: How did it happen that countries that attempted to install democracy earlier enjoyed it less frequently? Regime dynamics are driven by two

Toward a Structural Understanding of Coup Risk

Although coup risk plays an important role in theories of war, revolution, and democratization, scholars have not developed a rigorous conceptualization and valid measure of the concept. We develop a

Explaining African Military Coups d'Etat, 1960-1982

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the theoretical understanding of African military coups d'etat. We begin by replicating a well-known model (Jackman, 1978) that purports to identify

The "Coup Contagion" Hypothesis

This paper attempts to examine the extent to which military coups in one country influence in some fashion the occurrence of coups in other countries. The examination is conducted primarily via the

Causes and Triggers of Coups d'état: An Event History Analysis

What explains the propensities of countries to experience coups d'etat? This article tests various, at times competing, theories of coups using event history analysis by modeling coups as repeatable

Fujimori's Coup and the Breakdown of Democracy in Latin America

  • Carol Wise
  • Political Science
    Perspectives on Politics
  • 2004
Fujimori's Coup and the Breakdown of Democracy in Latin America. By Charles D. Kenney. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 2004. 379p. $60.00 cloth, $30.00 paper. In this book on Peruvian

Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation

I present a new empirical approach to the study of democratic consolidation. This approach leads to new insights into the determinants of democratic consolidation that cannot be obtained with

Political Order in Changing Societies

This now-classic examination of the development of viable political institutions in emerging nations is a major and enduring contribution to modern political analysis. In a new Foreword, Francis
...