Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice

Abstract

iv 1. THE CHALLENGE 1 1.1. The Human Predicament 1 1.2. The Sustainability Notion 2 1.3. The Policy Context 3 2. THE SCENARIO APPROACH 5 2.1. Objectives 5 2.2. System Perspectives and Scenario Criteria 5 2.3. Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective 7 2.4. Methodological Elements 7 3. SCENARIO OVERVIEW 11 4. CRITICAL TRENDS 17 4.1. Population Growth 17 4.2. Economic Growth 18 4.3. Technological Change 18 4.4. Decentralization of Authority 19 4.5. Equity Trends 19 4.6. Resource Depletion 20 4.7. Pollution and Global Environmental Change 20 5. CONVENTIONAL WORLDS 21 5.1. The Paradigm 21 5.2. Variations 21 5.3. Reference Variant: The Problem 22 5.4. Policy Reform Variant: The Answer? 25 6. BARBARIZATION 29 6.1. The Scenarios Unfold 29 6.2. Breakdown 33 6.3. Fortress World 33 Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice ii 7. GREAT TRANSITIONS 35 7.1. Narrowing the Focus 35 7.2. New Social Actors, New World View 36 7.3. A New Sustainability Paradigm Unfolds 37 8. THE TASKS AHEAD 41 8.1. Research Directions 41 8.2. Reflections at the Branch Point 42

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Cite this paper

@inproceedings{Gallopin2013BranchPG, title={Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice}, author={Gilberto C Gallopin and Al Hammond and Paul D. Raskin and Rob Swart}, year={2013} }