# Bounding the first exit from the basin: Independence times and finite-time basin stability.

@article{Schultz2018BoundingTF, title={Bounding the first exit from the basin: Independence times and finite-time basin stability.}, author={P. Schultz and F. Hellmann and K. Webster and J. Kurths}, journal={Chaos}, year={2018}, volume={28 4}, pages={ 043102 } }

We study the stability of deterministic systems, given sequences of large, jump-like perturbations. Our main result is the derivation of a lower bound for the probability of the system to remain in the basin, given that perturbations are rare enough. This bound is efficient to evaluate numerically. To quantify rare enough, we define the notion of the independence time of such a system. This is the time after which a perturbed state has probably returned close to the attractor, meaning that… CONTINUE READING

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