## The role of ethnicity in predicting diabetes risk at the population level

- Laura C. Rosella, Cameron A. Mustard, +4 authors Douglas G. Manuel
- Ethnicity & health
- 2012

1 Excerpt

- Published 2008

Often there is a need to predict the probability that an individual with specific characteristics (risk factors) will suffer from a certain disease or a health condition. Sometimes the real interest is in providing the aggregate predicted risk estimates at the population level or at the level of a subpopulation (e.g., males aged 65+). A related problem is prediction of such a probability for an individual who does not belong to the surveyed population. While the estimation of these probabilities follows from fitting an appropriate model to the available data, the design-based standard error estimation of so-obtained estimates is not obvious. We are proposing a bootstrap method for estimation of the standard errors of predicted individual and aggregate risks. The method is illustrated using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey.

@inproceedings{Kovacevic2008BootstrapVE,
title={Bootstrap Variance Estimation for Predicted Individual and Population-Average Risks},
author={Milorad S. Kovacevic and Lenka Mach and Georgia Roberts},
year={2008}
}