# Birthday and Birthmate Problems: Misconceptions of Probability among Psychology Undergraduates and Casino Visitors and Personnel

@article{Voracek2008BirthdayAB, title={Birthday and Birthmate Problems: Misconceptions of Probability among Psychology Undergraduates and Casino Visitors and Personnel}, author={Martin Voracek and Ulrich S. Tran and Anton K. Formann}, journal={Perceptual and Motor Skills}, year={2008}, volume={106}, pages={103 - 91} }

Subjective estimates and associated confidence ratings for the solutions of some classic occupancy problems were studied in samples of 721 psychology undergraduates, 39 casino visitors, and 34 casino employees. On tasks varying the classic birthday problem, i.e., the probability P for any coincidence among N individuals sharing the same birthday, clear majorities of respondents markedly overestimated N, given P, and markedly underestimated P, given N. Respondents did notedly better on tasks…

## Tables from this paper

## 2 Citations

Displaying Winning Probabilities in Volleyball Interests Audiences Sensitive to Probability

- Computer Science2019 11th International Conference on Knowledge and Smart Technology (KST)
- 2019

To test this hypothesis, volleyball videos are captioned with the winning probabilities based on different models; one is consistent with statistical data while the other is not and the results show that the average interestingness does not significantly differ between the conditions.

When Suboptimal Rules

- EconomicsAAAI
- 2015

It is claimed that agents should at times suboptimally advise, and a proposed guideline for suboptimal advising is to rely on the level of intuitiveness of the optimal advice as a measure for how much the subOptimal advice presented to the user should drift from the optimal value.

## References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 53 REFERENCES

Understanding the Birthday Problem

- Mathematics
- 2006

The classical birthday problem: What is the least number of people required to assure that the probability that two or more of them have the same birthday ex ceeds The usual simplifications are that…

the birthday problem

- Mathematics
- 2008

Feller (1957) described the now famous birthday problem: There are n people in a room. What is the probability that they all have different birthdays. Assuming that there are 365 equally likely…

Inconsistencies in Students' Reasoning about Probability.

- Psychology
- 1993

Subjects were asked to select from among four possible sequences the "most likely" to result from flipping a coin five times. Contrary to the results of Kahneman and Tversky (1972), the majority of…

Approximations to the birthday problem with unequal occurrence probabilities and their application to the surname problem in Japan

- Mathematics
- 1992

Let X1, X2,..., Xn be iid random variables with a discrete distribution {pi}i=1m. We will discuss the coincidence probability Rn, i.e., the probability that there are members of {Xi} having the same…

The Birthday Problem for Boys and Girls

- Mathematics
- 1987

The famous birthday problem is well known to regular Gazette readers. For those readers not familiar with it, the problem is to find the size of the smallest group of people for which there is a…

A Birthday Problem Solution for Nonuniform Birth Frequencies

- Mathematics
- 1992

Abstract In the classical birthday problem it is assumed that the distribution of births is uniform throughout the year. Actual United States births, however, follow a seasonal pattern varying…

Methods for studying coincidences

- Psychology
- 1991

This article illustrates basic statistical techniques for studying coincidences. These include data-gathering methods (informal anecdotes, case studies, observational studies, and experiments) and…

Probability With Statistical Applications

- MathematicsTechnometrics
- 2002

The first two chapters discuss hypothesis testing, regression, and analysis of variance, and make greater use of the software to reinforce the statistical concepts, particularly the last chapter, which is just 15 pages long.

Does the teaching of probability improve probabilistic intuitions?

- Education
- 1984

The paper analyzes the effects of a teaching programme in probability devised for junior high school pupils (grades 5, 6 and 7). It was found that most of the notions were too difficult for the fifth…

The Evolution with Age of Probabilistic, Intuitively Based Misconceptions.

- Psychology
- 1997

The purpose of this research was to investigate the evolution, with age, of probabilistic, intuitively based misconceptions. We hypothesized, on the basis of previous research with infinity concepts,…