Birthday and Birthmate Problems: Misconceptions of Probability among Psychology Undergraduates and Casino Visitors and Personnel

@article{Voracek2008BirthdayAB,
  title={Birthday and Birthmate Problems: Misconceptions of Probability among Psychology Undergraduates and Casino Visitors and Personnel},
  author={Martin Voracek and Ulrich S. Tran and Anton K. Formann},
  journal={Perceptual and Motor Skills},
  year={2008},
  volume={106},
  pages={103 - 91}
}
Subjective estimates and associated confidence ratings for the solutions of some classic occupancy problems were studied in samples of 721 psychology undergraduates, 39 casino visitors, and 34 casino employees. On tasks varying the classic birthday problem, i.e., the probability P for any coincidence among N individuals sharing the same birthday, clear majorities of respondents markedly overestimated N, given P, and markedly underestimated P, given N. Respondents did notedly better on tasks… 

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