Biodiversity conservation: Climate change and extinction risk

  title={Biodiversity conservation: Climate change and extinction risk},
  author={John Harte and Annette Marie Ostling and Jessica L. Green and Ann P. Kinzig},
Arising from: C. D. Thomas et al. 427, 145–148 (2004)); see also communication from Thuiller et al. and communication from Buckley & Roughgarden; Thomas et al. replyThomas et al. have carried out a useful analysis of the extinction risk from climate warming. Their overall conclusion, that a large fraction of extant species could be driven to extinction by expected climate trends over the next 50 years, is compelling: it adds to the many other reasons why new energy policies are needed to reduce… Expand
Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/Effects of changes in climate and land use/Climate change and extinction risk (reply)
Thomas et al. reply — We reconsider our estimates of climate-related extinction in the light of three questions raised by Thuiller et al., Buckley and Roughgarden and Harte et al.. We are able toExpand
First Estimates of Extinction Risk from Climate Change
This chapter reviews the first study that provided an international assessment of the risks to biodiversity associated with climate change. Rapid acceleration of information at the end of theExpand
The Use and Misuse of Species-Area Relationships in Predicting Climate-Driven Extinction
Thomas et al. (2004) pioneered the estimate of extinction risk due to climate change by coupling species range-loss simulations from species distribution models with species-loss estimates from theExpand
How Useful Are Species Distribution Models for Managing Biodiversity under Future Climates
Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for biological conservation. Agencies are increasingly looking to modeled projections of species' distributions under future climates to informExpand
The View from the Cape: Extinction Risk, Protected Areas, and Climate Change
An in-depth example, the multispecies modeling effort that has been conducted for the proteas of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, is used to illustrate lessons learned in this and other multisPEcies modeling efforts. Expand
Climate change, species–area curves and the extinction crisis
  • O. Lewis
  • Geography, Medicine
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
  • 2005
It is suggested that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss. Expand
Are a Million Species at Risk
The research paper “Extinction Risk from Climate Change” created front-page headlines around the world when it appeared as the cover story of Nature in January 2004 (Thomas et al., 2004). The notionExpand
Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere.
The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. Expand
Using species distributions models for designing conservation strategies of Tropical Andean biodiversity under climate change
Abstract Biodiversity in the Tropical Andes is under continuous threat from anthropogenic activities. Projected changes in climate will likely exacerbate this situation. Using species distributionExpand
Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions
The main shortcomings of species distribution models and species distribution projections are reviewed, limits to their use are identified and a perspective on how to overcome some current obstacles is opened. Expand


Extinction risk from climate change
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration. Expand
Global Warming, Temperature Homogenization and Species Extinction
The global mean surface air temperature has increased by about 0.5 °C over the past century, and is expected to increase by 1.5 to 4.0 °C in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (relative to theExpand
At low levels of habitat de- struction, estimates of species loss using the endemics-area relationship are significantly lower than existing estimates, but a rapid rise in predicted species loss when a threshold of habitat loss is exceeded suggests that extrapolation of recent rates ofspecies loss may underestimate future species extinctions under continued land clearing. Expand
Species richness, endemism and abundance patterns: tests of two fractal models in a serpentine grassland
These findings indicate that in order to make predictions based on the existence of a power-law species‐area relationship, ecologists need a unifying theory of how the community-level fractal property arises in the presence of species-level distributional differences. Expand
Sample shape, spatial scale and species counts : Implications for reserve design
Abstract The optimal design of nature reserves has been a hotly debated topic for some years. One contentious issue has concerned the ideal shape of reserves, with several researchers suggesting thatExpand
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California 94720, USA e-mail: †School of Natural Sciences
  • California 94720, USA e-mail: †School of Natural Sciences
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Reply: Thomas et al. reply to this communication
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