Beyond ranking nodes: Predicting epidemic outbreak sizes by network centralities

  title={Beyond ranking nodes: Predicting epidemic outbreak sizes by network centralities},
  author={Doina Bucur and Petter Holme},
  journal={PLoS Computational Biology},
Identifying important nodes for disease spreading is a central topic in network epidemiology. We investigate how well the position of a node, characterized by standard network measures, can predict its epidemiological importance in any graph of a given number of nodes. This is in contrast to other studies that deal with the easier prediction problem of ranking nodes by their epidemic importance in given graphs. As a benchmark for epidemic importance, we calculate the exact expected outbreak… 
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