# Between ignorance and truth: Partition dependence and learning in judgment under uncertainty.

@article{See2006BetweenIA, title={Between ignorance and truth: Partition dependence and learning in judgment under uncertainty.}, author={Kelly E. See and Craig R. Fox and Yuval Rottenstreich}, journal={Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition}, year={2006}, volume={32 6}, pages={ 1385-402 } }

In 3 studies, participants viewed sequences of multiattribute objects (e.g., colored shapes) appearing with varying frequencies and judged the likelihood of the attributes of those objects. Judged probabilities reflected a compromise between (a) the frequency with which each attribute appeared and (b) the ignorance prior probability cued by the number of distinct values that the focal attribute could take on. Thus, judged probabilities were partition dependent, varying with the number of events…

## 71 Citations

Partition Priming in Judgments of Imprecise Probabilities

- Psychology
- 2009

On grounds of insufficient reason, a probability of 1/K is assigned to K mutually exclusive possible events when nothing is known about the likelihood of those events. Fox and Rottenstreich (2003)…

Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty

- PsychologyManag. Sci.
- 2017

It is shown that people make more extreme probability judgments for events they view as entailing more epistemic uncertainty and less aleatory uncertainty, in a domain where there is agreement concerning the balance of evidence but individual differences in the perception of the epistemicness/aleatoriness of that domain.

The Bounded Rationality of Probability Distortion

- PsychologybioRxiv
- 2019

A Bounded Log-Odds Model (BLO) of probability and relative frequency distortion is proposed and it is found that, subject to the boundedness limitation, participants’ choice of distortion approximately maximized the mutual information between objective task-relevant values and internal values, a form of bounded rationality.

Epistemic versus Aleatory Judgment Under Uncertainty

- Philosophy
- 2013

Both cases involve judgment under uncertainty, with a mixture of evidence supporting and opposing each event’s likelihood. Yet, they involve what appears to be two qualitatively distinct…

The bounded rationality of probability distortion

- PsychologyProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- 2020

A bounded log-odds model (BLO) of probability and relative frequency distortion based on three assumptions is proposed and it is found that, subject to the boundedness limitation, participants’ choice of distortion approximately maximized the mutual information between objective task-relevant values and internal values, a form of bounded rationality.

Known Unknowns: A Critical Determinant of Confidence and Calibration

- PsychologyManag. Sci.
- 2017

It is proposed that an important determinant of judged confidence is the evaluation of evidence that is unknown or missing, and overconfidence is often driven by the neglect of unknowns, and considering the unknowns reduced overconfidence substantially and was more effective than the classic “consider the alternative” debiasing technique.

Interior Additivity and Subjective Probability Assessment of Continuous Variables

- Computer ScienceManag. Sci.
- 2008

The aim is to reduce partition dependence, a judgmental bias that arises from the particular way in which a state space is partitioned for the purposes of making probability judgments, by exploring a property of subjective probabilities called interior additivity (IA).

The ultimate sampling dilemma in experience-based decision making.

- PsychologyJournal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition
- 2008

Computer simulations and 2 experiments demonstrate the ultimate sampling dilemma, which constitutes a serious obstacle to inductive inferences in a probabilistic world. Participants were asked to…

Judging a part by the size of its whole: : The category size bias in probability judgments

- Business
- 2014

Whereas prior research has found that consumers' probability judgments are sensitive to the number of categories into which a set of possible outcomes is grouped, this article demonstrates that…

## References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 52 REFERENCES

Partition Priming in Judgment Under Uncertainty

- PsychologyPsychological science
- 2003

It is shown that likelihood judgments are biased toward an ignorance-prior probability that assigns equal credence to each mutually exclusive event considered by the judge, and systematic partition dependence is observed.

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

- EconomicsScience
- 1974

Three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty are described: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development.

Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior

- EconomicsManag. Sci.
- 2005

This work shows that assessed probabilities are systematically biased toward a uniform distribution over all events into which the relevant state space happens to be partitioned, so that probabilities are "partition dependent" and related research on the "pruning bias" in fault-tree assessment is related.

Probability judgment in three-category classification learning.

- PsychologyJournal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition
- 2000

Judges of probability and of frequency are systematically subadditive even when the judgments are based on cues learned within the experimental context, and cue conflict has a reliable influence on the degree of subadditivity.

Likelihood judgment based on previously observed outcomes: the alternative-outcomes effect in a learning paradigm

- PsychologyMemory & cognition
- 2002

The findings were consistent with the heuristic comparison account, which suggests that the judged likelihood of a focal outcome will be disproportionately influenced by the strength (frequency) of the strongest alternative outcome.

Partition-edit-count: naive extensional reasoning in judgment of conditional probability.

- PsychologyJournal of experimental psychology. General
- 2004

The authors provide evidence that people typically evaluate conditional probabilities by subjectively partitioning the sample space into n interchangeable events, editing out events that can be…

Interior Additivity and Subjective Probability Assessment of Continuous Variables

- Computer ScienceManag. Sci.
- 2008

The aim is to reduce partition dependence, a judgmental bias that arises from the particular way in which a state space is partitioned for the purposes of making probability judgments, by exploring a property of subjective probabilities called interior additivity (IA).

Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment

- Psychology
- 1988

Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.

- Economics
- 1994

This article presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the…

Strength of Evidence, Judged Probability, and Choice Under Uncertainty

- PsychologyCognitive Psychology
- 1999

The investigation relies on the theoretical framework provided by support theory, a nonextensional model of judgment under uncertainty, to trace the relationship between assessed strength of evidence, judgments of probability, and decisions under uncertainty.