Corpus ID: 236975885

Bayesian on-line anticipation of critical transitions

  title={Bayesian on-line anticipation of critical transitions},
  author={Martin Hessler and Oliver Kamps},
(Dated: 12. August 2021) The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im1 portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either 2 prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We present a data-driven method based on the estimation 3 of a parameterized nonlinear stochastic differential equation that allows for a robust anticipation of 4 critical transitions even in the presence of strong noise levels like… Expand

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