Bayesian evidence and predictivity of the inflationary paradigm

@article{Gubitosi2015BayesianEA,
  title={Bayesian evidence and predictivity of the inflationary paradigm},
  author={Giulia Gubitosi and M. Lagos and J. Magueijo and R. Allison},
  journal={arXiv: Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics},
  year={2015}
}
In this paper we consider the issue of paradigm evaluation by applying Bayes' theorem along the following nested hierarchy of progressively more complex structures: i) parameter estimation (within a model), ii) model selection and comparison (within a paradigm), iii) paradigm evaluation. In such a hierarchy the Bayesian evidence works both as the posterior's normalization at a given level and as the likelihood function at the next level up. Whilst raising no objections to the standard… Expand
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