Corpus ID: 30471757

Bayesian considerations on the multiverse explanation of cosmic fine-tuning

  title={Bayesian considerations on the multiverse explanation of cosmic fine-tuning},
  author={Vesa Palonen},
  journal={arXiv: Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability},
  • V. Palonen
  • Published 2008
  • Physics, Mathematics
  • arXiv: Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
The fundamental laws and constants of our universe seem to be finely tuned for life. The various multiverse hypotheses are popular explanations for the fine tuning. This paper reviews the four main suggestions on inference in the presence of possible multiple universes and observer selection effects. Basic identities from probability theory and previously unnoticed conditional dependencies of the propositions involved are used to decide among the alternatives. In the case of cosmic fine-tuning… Expand

Figures from this paper

Contemporary History of Cosmology and the Controversy over the Multiverse
Summary Cosmology has always been different from other areas of the natural sciences. Although an observationally supported standard model of the universe emerged in the 1960s, more speculativeExpand
Using statistical methods to model the fine-tuning of molecular machines and systems.
This paper argues that biological systems present fine-tuning at different levels, e.g. functional proteins, complex biochemical machines in living cells, and cellular networks, and presents a framework for such analysis. Expand


Should We Care about Fine-Tuning?
  • J. Koperski
  • Philosophy
  • The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
  • 2005
There is an ongoing debate over cosmological fine-tuning between those holding that design is the best explanation and those who favor a multiverse. A small group of critics has recently challengedExpand
Observational selection effects and probability
This thesis develops a theory of how to reason when our evidence has been subjected to observational selection effects. It has applications in cosmology, evolutionary biology, thermodynamics and theExpand
Fine-tuning, multiple universes, and the this universe objection
When it is suggested that the fine-tuning of the universe for life provides evidence for a cosmic designer, the multiple-universe hypothesis is often presented as an alternative. Some philosophersExpand
Firing Squads and Fine-Tuning: Sober on the Design Argument
  • J. Weisberg
  • Philosophy
  • The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
  • 2005
Elliott Sober has recently argued that the cosmological design argument is unsound, since our observation of cosmic fine-tuning is subject to an observation selection effect (OSE). I argue that thisExpand
Observer-relative chances and the doomsday argument
Suppose various observers are divided randomly into two groups, a large and a small. Not knowing into which group anyone has been sent, each can have strong grounds for believing in being in theExpand
Observer-Relative Chances In Anthropic Reasoning?
John Leslie presents a thought experiment to show that chances are sometimes observer-relative in a paradoxical way. The pivotal assumption in his argument – a version of the weak anthropic principleExpand
The Design Argument
This Element analyzes the various forms that design arguments for the existence of God can take, but the main focus is on two such arguments. The first concerns the complex adaptive features thatExpand
Bayesian Networks
  • J. Pearl
  • Computer Science
  • Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining. 2nd Ed.
  • 1998
The capability for bidirectional inferences and a rigorous probabilistic foundation led to the rapid emergence of Bayesian networks as the method of choice for uncertain reasoning in AI and expert systems, replacing earlier, ad hoc rule-based schemes. Expand
The Anthropic Cosmological Principle
Is there any connection between the vastness of the universes of stars and galaxies and the existence of life on a small planet out in the suburbs of the Milky Way? This book shows that there is. InExpand
Conflict between anthropic reasoning and observation
Anthropic reasoning often begins with the premise that we should expect to find ourselves typical among all intelligent observers. However, in the infinite universe predicted by inflation, there areExpand