Bayesian back-calculation using a multi-state model with application to HIV.

@article{Sweeting2005BayesianBU,
  title={Bayesian back-calculation using a multi-state model with application to HIV.},
  author={Michael J Sweeting and Daniela de Angelis and Odd Olai Aalen},
  journal={Statistics in medicine},
  year={2005},
  volume={24 24},
  pages={3991-4007}
}
Back-calculation is a method of obtaining estimates of the number of infections of a disease over time. Data on an endpoint of the disease, together with knowledge of the time from infection to endpoint, allows reconstruction of the incidence of infection. The technique has had much success when applied to the HIV epidemic, using incidence of AIDS diagnoses to inform past HIV infections. In recent years, the period from infection to AIDS has changed considerably due to new regimes of anti-viral… CONTINUE READING

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