Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State-Level Estimates from National Polls

@article{Park2004BayesianME,
  title={Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State-Level Estimates from National Polls},
  author={D. Park and A. Gelman and Joseph Bafumi},
  journal={Political Analysis},
  year={2004},
  volume={12},
  pages={375 - 385}
}
We fit a multilevel logistic regression model for the mean of a binary response variable conditional on poststratification cells. This approach combines the modeling approach often used in small-area estimation with the population information used in poststratification (see Gelman and Little 1997, Survey Methodology 23:127–135). To validate the method, we apply it to U.S. preelection polls for 1988 and 1992, poststratified by state, region, and the usual demographic variables. We evaluate the… Expand
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