Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models

@article{Smith2009BayesianMO,
  title={Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models},
  author={Richard L. Smith and Claudia Tebaldi and Douglas W. Nychka and Linda O. Mearns},
  journal={Journal of the American Statistical Association},
  year={2009},
  volume={104},
  pages={116 - 97}
}
Projections of future climate change caused by increasing greenhouse gases depend critically on numerical climate models coupling the ocean and atmosphere (global climate models [GCMs]). However, different models differ substantially in their projections, which raises the question of how the different models can best be combined into a probability distribution of future climate change. For this analysis, we have collected both current and future projected mean temperatures produced by nine… Expand
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