# Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy

@article{Korb2004BayesianIL, title={Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy}, author={K. Korb}, journal={Informal Logic}, year={2004}, volume={24} }

Bayesian reasoning has been applied formally to statistical inference, machine learning and analysing scientific method. Here I apply it informally to more common forms of inference, namely natural language arguments. I analyse a variety of traditional fallacies, deductive, inductive and causal, and find more merit in them than is generally acknowledged. Bayesian principles provide a framework for understanding ordinary arguments which is well worth developing.

#### 45 Citations

The rationality of informal argumentation: a Bayesian approach to reasoning fallacies.

- Psychology, Medicine
- Psychological review
- 2007

Classical informal reasoning "fallacies," for example, begging the question or arguing from ignorance, while ubiquitous in everyday argumentation, have been subject to little systematic investigation… Expand

A normative theory of argument strength

- Sociology
- 2008

In this article, we argue for the general importance of normative theories of argument strength. We also provide some evidence based on our recent work on the fallacies as to why Bayesian probability… Expand

Bayesian approach to informal argumentation : evidence, uncertainty and argument strength

- Mathematics
- 2008

The work in this thesis contributes towards answering a simple, important and longstanding question: How do people evaluate informal arguments In Chapter 1, I review existing approaches to informal… Expand

Content Determination for Natural Language Descriptions of Predictive Bayesian Networks

- Computer Science
- EUSFLAT Conf.
- 2019

A framework for the explanation of predictive inference in Bayesian Networks (BN) in natural language to non-specialized users by means of (fuzzy) quantified statements and reasons using the a fuzzy syllogism is proposed. Expand

Bayesian Argumentation: The practical side of probability

- Computer Science
- 2012

The volume provides, for the first time, a formal measure of subjective argument strength and argument force, robust enough to allow advocates of opposing sides of an argument to agree on the relative strengths of their supporting reasoning. Expand

A probabilistic analysis of argument cogency

- Mathematics, Computer Science
- Synthese
- 2016

Results contrast with, and may indeed serve to correct, the informal understanding and applications of the RSA criteria concerning their conceptual (in)dependence, their function as update-thresholds, and their status as obligatory rather than permissive norms, but show how these formal and informal normative approachs can in fact align. Expand

Because Hitler did it! Quantitative tests of Bayesian argumentation using ad hominem

- Mathematics
- 2012

Bayesian probability has recently been proposed as a normative theory of argumentation. In this article, we provide a Bayesian formalisation of the ad Hitlerum argument, as a special case of the ad… Expand

Adams Conditioning and Likelihood Ratio Transfer Mediated Inference

- Computer Science
- Sci. Ann. Comput. Sci.
- 2019

In inference mechanisms which may be viewed as simple multi-agent protocols, an important protocol of this kind involves an agent FE who communicates to a second agent TOF first its value of a certain likelihood ratio with respect to its own belief state which is supposed to be captured by a probability function on FE's proposition space. Expand

Adams Conditioning and Likelihood Ratio Transfer Mediated Inference

- 2019

Bayesian inference as applied in a legal setting is about belief transfer and involves a plurality of agents and communication protocols. A forensic expert (FE) may communicate to a trier of fact… Expand

Denying Antecedents and Affirming Consequents: The State of the Art

- Sociology
- 2015

Recent work on conditional reasoning argues that denying the antecedent [DA] and affirming the consequent [AC] are defeasible but cogent patterns of argument, either because they are effective,… Expand

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