# Bayes or Laplace? An examination of the origin and early applications of Bayes' theorem

@article{Dale1982BayesOL, title={Bayes or Laplace? An examination of the origin and early applications of Bayes' theorem}, author={Andrew I. Dale}, journal={Archive for History of Exact Sciences}, year={1982}, volume={27}, pages={23-47} }

Maistrov (1974) in fact goes so far as to say "Bayes' formula appears in all texts on probability theory" (p. 87), a statement which is perhaps a little exaggerated (unless, of course, one is perverse enough to make this result's presence a sine qua non for a book to be so described!). The fame (or notoriety, rather, in some statistical circles) of this "Bayes' Theorem" is such that it comes as something of a supriseif not a shockto discover that this proposition is nowhere to be found in Bayes…

## 31 Citations

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Holland also mentions the note on an electrifying machine and draws attention to the shorthand (apparently Elisha Coles's system) used by Bayes. (This is also commented on by Stigler (1984), who…

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Summary The contribution of Bayes to statistical inference has been much discussed, whereas his evaluations of the beta probability integral have received little attention, and Price's improvements…

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- 2007

I dicuss the current literature on the subject, reprint its reviews written by me (almost all of them already published) and accuse a contemporary statistician (Stigler) of slandering Gauss. A German…

Discovery of Bayes' Table at Tunbridge Wells

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- 2021

In 1755 Thomas Bayes expressed an interest in the problem of combining repeated measurements of the location of a star. Bayes described a tandem set-up of a ball thrown on a table, followed by…

Buffon, Price, and Laplace: Scientific attribution in the 18th century

- PhysicsArchive for History of Exact Sciences
- 1988

Thus we find that an event having occurred successively any number of times, the probability that it will happen again the next time is equal to this number increased by unity divided by the same…

Symmetry and its discontents : essays on the history of inductive probability

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Part I. Probability: 1. Symmetry and its discontents 2. The rule of succession 3. Buffon, Price, and Laplace: scientific attribution in the eighteenth century 4. W. E. Johnson's sufficientness…

## References

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LII. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S

- HistoryPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London
- 1763

Dear Sir, I Now send you an essay which I have found among the papers of our deceased friend Mr. Bayes, and which, in my opinion, has great merit, and well deserves to be preserved.

Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics. XXXIV Napoleonic statistics: The work of Laplace

- Mathematics
- 1975

SUMMARY The work of Pierre Simon, Marquis de Laplace, was more important to the early development of mathematical statistics than that of any other individual. This paper reviews both his major…

A Treatise on Probability

- Mathematics
- 1921

Part 1 Fundamental ideas: the meaning of probability - probability in relation to the theory of knowledge - the measurement of probabilities - the principle of indifference - other methods of…

Laplace's theory of errors

- MathematicsArchive for History of Exact Sciences
- 1977

The genesis and development of the theory of errors before Laplace have been considered in a series of my articles [69] -[74]. My present aim is to elucidate the relevant work of Laplace himself,…

A history of the mathematical theory of probability from the time of Pascal to that of Laplace / by I. Todhunter.

- History
- 1865

The author lists the authors of the Miscellaneous investigations between the years 1780 and 1800, including Laplace, D'Alembert, Bayes, Lagrange, Condorcet, Trembley, and Euler.