BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS

@article{Tversky1971BELIEFIT,
  title={BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS},
  author={Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman},
  journal={Psychological Bulletin},
  year={1971},
  volume={76},
  pages={105-110}
}
“Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory ( z = 2.23, p If you feel that the probability is somewhere around .85, you may be pleased to know that you belong to a majority group. Indeed, that was the median answer of two small groups who were kind enough to respond to a questionnaire distributed at meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Group and of the American Psychological Association. On the other hand, if you feel… 

Some Thoughts about Conservative Evaluations of Replications

It is suggested that an unduly conservative research tradition operates in social psychology to heighten the perception of inconsistency in research replications. In large part, this tradition,

Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.

The program of research now known as the heuristics and biases approach began with a survey of 84 participants at the 1969 meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Society and the American

Subjective p intervals researchers underestimate the variability of p values over replication

Suppose you obtain p = .02 in an experiment, then replicate the experiment with new samples. What p value might you obtain, and what interval has an 80% chance of including that replication p? Under

Beliefs underlying random sampling

In Experiment 1, subjects estimated (1) the mean of a random sample of 10 scores consisting of 9 unknown scores and 1 known score that was divergent from the population mean and (2) the mean of the 9

Field Evidence on the Law of Small Numbers

The law of small numbers is the fallacious belief that even small samples should closely resemble the parent distribution from which the sample is drawn. It is expressed through two opposite

Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers

Many people believe in the Law of Small Numbers, exaggerating the degree to which a small sample resembles the population from which it is drawn. To model this, I assume that a person exaggerates the

Belief bias in the perception of sample size adequacy

The results included the finding that participants’ complete knowledge did indeed bias their perceptions not only of the adequacy of the sample size, but also of the rationality of the agent drawing the conclusion from the sample.

Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments

This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood

The Rules of the Game Called Psychological Science

This paper considers 13 meta-analyses covering 281 primary studies in various fields of psychology and finds indications of biases and/or an excess of significant results in seven, highlighting the need for sufficiently powerful replications and changes in journal policies.
...

References

SHOWING 1-7 OF 7 REFERENCES

The statistical power of abnormal-social psychological research: a review.

  • J. Cohen
  • Psychology
    Journal of abnormal and social psychology
  • 1962

Categories of Human Learning

RESPONSE PREFERENCES: A REVIEW OF SOME RELEVANT LITERATURE.

  • G. S. Tune
  • Psychology, Medicine
    Psychological bulletin
  • 1964

Conservatism, in human information processing Formal representation of human judgment

  • Conservatism, in human information processing Formal representation of human judgment
  • 1968

Probability learning Categories of human learning

  • Probability learning Categories of human learning
  • 1964