Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola

@article{King2015AvoidableEI,
  title={Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola},
  author={A. King and M. Domenech de Cell{\`e}s and F. Magpantay and P. Rohani},
  journal={Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
  year={2015},
  volume={282}
}
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence… Expand
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