Availability of Information and the Aggregation of Confidence in Prior Decisions

  title={Availability of Information and the Aggregation of Confidence in Prior Decisions},
  author={Jonathan R. Treadwell and Thomas O. Nelson},
  journal={Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes},
Abstract Recent research on calibration has shown that judgments about aggregate performance are consistently lower in magnitude than confidence-judgments about single items (the “aggregation effect”). Three explanations of this effect have been proposed: Probabilistic Mental Models theory, the regression-to-the-mean hypothesis, and the dual-source hypothesis. In two studies, we tested predictions based on these explanations about the influence of availability of information on the aggregation… 

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