8,599 Citations
Availability heuristic in judgments of set size and frequency of occurrence.
- Psychology
- 1993
The availability heuristic has been widely cited as an important factor in the judgment process. However, the evidence that availability is important in judging category size is not fully convincing.…
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
- EconomicsScience
- 1974
Three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty are described: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development.
A Replication and Extension of the Inducement of the Availability Heuristic
- Psychology
- 1984
Abstract : The availability of an event in an observer's memory is postulated to be one of the bases for estimates of its frequency of past occurrence or the probability of future occurrence. In a…
The availability heuristic revisited : experienced ease of retrieval in mundane frequency estimates
- Psychology
- 1995
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty
- Psychology
- 1978
An availability bias in professional judgment.
- Business
- 1988
When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been…
Direct measures of availability and judgments of category frequency
- Psychology
- 1977
Tversky and Kahneman (1973) have proposed that people judge the numerosity of categories by the availability of category instances. The present study tests this hypothesis using several direct…
Studies in subjective probability l: Prediction of random events
- Psychology
- 1983
When students are asked to predict the outcome of a random event, where all alternatives are equally probable (lotteries), they tend to choose central, “representative” values, and avoid extreme…
Heuristics and Biases: Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability
- Psychology
- 2002
This article presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the…
References
SHOWING 1-10 OF 31 REFERENCES
Multiple probability learning: Associating events with their probabilities of occurrence
- Psychology
- 1970
On the psychology of prediction
- Psychology
- 1973
In this paper, we explore the rules that determine intuitive predictions and judgments of confidence and contrast these rules to the normative principles of statistical prediction. Two classes of…
BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS
- Philosophy
- 1971
“Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory ( z = 2.23, p If you feel that the probability is somewhere around .85, you may…
JUDGMENT OF CONTINGENCY BETWEEN RESPONSES AND OUTCOMES.
- PsychologyPsychological monographs
- 1965
Risk responses identified using contingent response strategy is called contingency plans and some responses are designed for use only if certain events occur.
RECOGNITION AND RETRIEVAL PROCESSES IN FREE RECALL
- Psychology
- 1972
A critique of two popular "strength" theories, one which relates recall and recognition to the strength of one and the same memory trace, and another which relates only recognition memory to a similar strength measure are offered.