Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability

  title={Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability},
  author={Kevin E. Trenberth},
  journal={Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},
  • K. Trenberth
  • Published 1 November 2011
  • Environmental Science
  • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is “unequivocal” and ‘very likely’ caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian… 

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