Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years

  title={Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years},
  author={Michael Everett Mann and Jonathan Dalrymple Woodruff and Jeffrey P. Donnelly and Zhihua Zhang},
Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here we place recent activity in a longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical cyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based… 
Punctuated global tropical cyclone activity over the past 5,000 years
[1] There are now a substantial number of millennial scale records of tropical cyclones from a variety of locations globally. Some of these, such as those in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, show
Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium
The results corroborate evidence for the increasing trend of hurricane activity during the Industrial Era; however, it is shown that contemporary activity has not exceeded the range of natural climate variability exhibited during the last millennium.
Paleotempestology: Reconstructing Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Pre-HURDAT Era
The study of past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological proxies and/or historical documentary records is known as paleotempestology. This scientific discipline has become prominent over
Tropical cyclones, global climate change and the role of Quaternary studies
The number and types of late Quaternary records of tropical cyclones (TCs) and temperate storms have been increasing globally over the past 10 years. There are now numerous such records for the
Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years
How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane
Tropical cyclones and climate change
Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales. Geological records of past climates have shown century-long
Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia
A 2,200-year time series of cave flooding from the northwest Australian tropics is presented, based on an integrated analysis of meteorological data and sediment layers within stalagmites, as representing a proxy for extreme rainfall events derived primarily from tropical cyclones (TCs) and secondarily from the regional summer monsoon, suggesting that changes between La Niña- and El Niño-dominated periods drove multicentennial shifts in TC activity in both basins.
Earth's Future Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years
How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane
Solar forcing over the last 1500 years and Australian tropical cyclone activity
Accurate seasonal and decadal predictions of tropical cyclone activity are essential for the development of mitigation strategies for the 2.7 billion residents living within cyclone prone regions.
Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?
[1] The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical


Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon
Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes.
Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years
A record of the frequency of major Atlantic hurricanes over the past 270 years is constructed using proxy records of vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature from corals and a marine sediment core, indicating that the average frequency ofmajor hurricanes decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1990s.
Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions
Using projected boundary conditions for the end of the twenty-first century, the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones and hurricanes in a regional climate model of the Atlantic basin is reduced
Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?
  • G. Holland, P. Webster
  • Environmental Science, Medicine
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
  • 2007
It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming.
Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming
[1] To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model-projected changes in large-scale environmental factors tied to variations in
Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology
Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of
The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence rates
[1] We analyzed annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts from 1871-2004, considering three climate state variables—the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), peak (August-October or ‘ASO’)
El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium
Fossil-coral oxygen isotopic records from Palmyra Island are splice together to provide 30–150-year windows of tropical Pacific climate variability within the last 1,100 years, implying that the majority of ENSO variability over the last millennium may have arisen from dynamics internal to the ENSo system itself.
Tropical Pacific – mid-latitude teleconnections in medieval times
Terrestrial and marine late Holocene proxy records from the western and central US suggest that climate between approximately 500 and 1350 a.d. was marked by generally arid conditions with episodes
Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific over the Past 1000 Years
The response of El Nino to natural radiative forcing changes over the past 1000 yr is investigated based on numerical experiments employing the Zebiak–Cane model of the tropical Pacific coupled