Assessment of the 2880 impact threat from Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA

  title={Assessment of the 2880 impact threat from Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA},
  author={Davide Farnocchia and S R Chesley},
Nongravitational perturbations and virtual impactors: the case of asteroid (410777) 2009 FD
Asteroid (410777) 2009 FD could hit Earth between 2185 and 2196. The long term propagation to the possible impacts and the intervening planetary encounters make 2009 FD one of the most challenging
The Potentially Dangerous Asteroid (101955) Bennu
We computed impact solutions of the potentially dangerous asteroid (101955) Bennu based on 569 optical observations from September 11.40624UTC, 1999 to January 20.11189UTC, 2013, and 29 radar
Apophis: Complex rotation and hazard assessment
We present an updated hazard assessment for near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis. The stiff dynamics and the high precision of the trajectory of Apophis call for the most accurate dynamical model. In
The Potentially Dangerous Asteroid (101955) Bennu
We computed impact solutions of the potentially dangerous asteroid (101955) Bennu based on 569 optical observations from September 11.40624 UTC, 1999 to January 20.11189 UTC, 2013, and 29 radar
A Novel Approach to Asteroid Impact Monitoring
Orbit-determination programs find the orbit solution that best fits a set of observations by minimizing the root mean square of the residuals of the fit. For near-Earth asteroids, the uncertainty of
Impact hazard monitoring: theory and implementation
  • D. Farnocchia
  • Physics
    Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union
  • 2015
Keyhole maps are described as a tool to go beyond strongly scattering encounters and how to account for nongravitational perturbations, especially the Yarkovsky effect, when their contribution is the main source of prediction uncertainty.
Constraints on the near-Earth asteroid obliquity distribution from the Yarkovsky effect
Aims. From lightcurve and radar data we know the spin axis of only 43 near-Earth asteroids. In this paper we attempt to constrain the spin axis obliquity distribution of near-Earth asteroids by
Special Group of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids
Up to now, i.e. until March 15, 2019, there have been no uniform and up-todate computed orbits of so called Special asteroids: 29075 (1950DA), 99942 (Apophis), 101955 (Bennu) and 410777 (2009FD). In


Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction
Integration of the orbit of asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, which is based on radar and optical measurements spanning 51 years, reveals a 20-minute interval in March 2880 when there could be a
Quantifying the Risk Posed by Potential Earth Impacts
A new hazard scale that will describe the risk posed by a particular potential impact in both absolute and relative terms is proposed and described, which reflects the urgency of the situation in a natural way and thus can guide specialists in assessing the computational and observational effort appropriate for a given situation.
Yarkovsky Effect on Small Near-Earth Asteroids: Mathematical Formulation and Examples
The Yarkovsky effect is a subtle nongravitational phenomenon related to the anisotropic thermal emission of Solar System objects. Its importance has been recently demonstrated in relation to the
Retrograde spins of near-Earth asteroids from the Yarkovsky effect
It is reported that the spin vectors of NEAs show a strong and statistically significant excess of retrograde rotations, quantitatively consistent with the theoretical expectations of the Yarkovsky model.