Assessing the risk of spread of COVID-19 to the Asia Pacific region

  title={Assessing the risk of spread of COVID-19 to the Asia Pacific region},
  author={Freya M Shearer and James Walker and Nefel Tellioglu and James M. McCaw and Jodie McVernon and Andrew J. Black and Nicholas Geard},
During the early stages of an emerging disease outbreak, governments are required to make critical decisions on how to respond appropriately, despite limited data being available to inform these decisions. Analytical risk assessment is a valuable approach to guide decision-making on travel restrictions and border measures during the early phase of an outbreak, when transmission is primarily contained within a source country. Here we introduce a modular framework for estimating the importation… 

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