Another Balkan Humpty-Dumpty: Putting Albania Back Together European Security Enemies Far and Near: Macedonia's Fragile Stability
- Paul, Kubicek
- Another Balkan Humpty-Dumpty: Putting Albania…
For planning purposes, the time frame for the MAP states’ accession to NATO matters greatly. If a country is likely to be a NATO member in the near-term, then shaping activities should be designed with that in mind. For more distant time frames, shaping activities should be designed to ensure that the potential member can provide for its own credible deterrent and, in order to strengthen that deterrent, that the potential member’s military development will be compatible with NATO. This rationale is based on the pre-accession criterion regarding a country’s military contribution to NATO and on the assumption that a potential member would not be in a position to join NATO in the near term unless it already had armed forces that could provide a minimum deterrent and secure its sovereignty. Thus, for a near-term accession, NATO has a stake in ensuring that the potential member makes a meaningful contribution to both NATO’s collective defense and its peace operations. However, for a more distant accession, the country in question may have armed forces that are neither capable of securing its sovereignty nor compatible with NATO. In this case, since NATO provides a “gray-area” commitment to such countries by placing them in MAP, NATO has a stake in ensuring that they have a minimum credible deterrent. Otherwise, NATO could find itself having to intervene early to assist a MAP country in an unexpected crisis.