Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

  title={Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems},
  author={Ed Hawkins and Steffen Tietsche and Jonathan J. Day and Nathanael Melia and Keith Haines and Sarah P. E. Keeley},
Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential… CONTINUE READING

From This Paper

Topics from this paper.
8 Citations
25 References
Similar Papers


Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 25 references

Seasonal forecasts of the pan-Arctic sea ice extent using a GCM-based

  • 2013
Highly Influential
7 Excerpts

Potential forecast skill of ensemble predic

  • R. Buizza
  • 1997
Highly Influential
3 Excerpts

The role of sea ice thick

  • D. Salas-Mélia
  • 2012
Highly Influential
3 Excerpts

Skill Scores Based on the Mean Square Error

  • AH Murphy
  • 1988
Highly Influential
3 Excerpts

Arctic influence

  • T Jung, MA Kasper, T Semmler, S. Serrar
  • 2014

Skillful long-range p

  • E Wallace, J Waters, A. Williams
  • 2014

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…