Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

@inproceedings{Hawkins2015AspectsOD,
  title={Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems},
  author={Ed Hawkins and Steffen Tietsche and Jonathan J. Day and Nathanael Melia and Keith Haines and Sarah P. E. Keeley},
  year={2015}
}
Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential… CONTINUE READING

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