Are technical trading rules profitable? Evidence for head-and-shoulder rules

@article{Lucke2003AreTT,
  title={Are technical trading rules profitable? Evidence for head-and-shoulder rules},
  author={Bernd Lucke},
  journal={Applied Economics},
  year={2003},
  volume={35},
  pages={33 - 40}
}
  • Bernd Lucke
  • Published 1 January 2003
  • Economics
  • Applied Economics
The profitability of chartist trading rules on foreign exchange markets is still under debate. Since simple technical trading rules may not adequately capture the complex phenomenon of chartist trading, this study focuses on the prominent head-and-shoulder pattern as a representative trading rule which incorporates various ‘technical’ ideas such as smoothed trends, trend reversal, resistance levels, and volatility clustering. For various combinations of the building blocks of head-and-shoulder… 
Lost Decade, Market Efficiency and Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from Greece
We apply several well-known technical indicators to the daily data for the Athens Composite Share Price from 1/2/2000 to 12/31/2012. Our findings strongly support the predictive power of technical
Statistical testing of technical trading rule profitability
Faculty of Business and Economics DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Doctor of Philosophy Statistical Testing of Technical Trading Rule Profitability by Jung-Soo PARK The profitability of technical trading
The use of trading strategies by fund managers: some first survey evidence
A questionnaire survey has found that most fund managers rely on the strategies of buy-&-hold, momentum and contrarian trading. These strategies are typically applied mutually. Their use is rooted in
Trading rules and excess returns: evidence from Turkey
Purpose This paper aims to investigate popular technical trading rules (TTRs) applied to the FTSE Turkish all-cap and small-cap indexes from September 23, 2003 to August 9, 2019 to determine rules
Technical trading strategies and cross-national information linkage: the case of Taiwan stock market
This study tests four prevalent moving average technical trading rules for Taiwan stock markets. More notably, cross-national information from the US stock markets is also incorporated in our
Return Predictability and Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Iceland
The authors examine whether technical analysis has predictive power in the case of the OMX Iceland All-Share Index. If trading rules have predictive power, could a trader design a strategy to beat
On the profitability of technical trading
The sole use of price and related summary statistics in a technical trading strategy is an anathema to weak-form market efficiency. In practice, however, traders actively use technical analysis to
EMERGENT CAPITAL MARKETS’ EFFICIENCY: THE CASE OF POLAND
We apply two well-known technical indicators to the Polish Stock index over the period of 9/4/1998 to 4/18/2013. Our findings support the predictive power of technical trading rules for each
Return Predictability and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Bulgarian Stock Market
We applied three well-known technical indicators and one neglected indicator to the daily data for the Bulgarian Stock Index from November 21, 2003 to March 1, 2018. The results strongly support the
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 23 REFERENCES
Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention
There is reliable evidence that simple rules used by traders have some predictive value over the future movement of foreign exchange prices. This paper will review some of this evidence and discuss
Technical Trading Rules and Regime Shifts in Foreign Exchange
Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach
Abstract Using genetic programming techniques to find technical trading rules, we find strong evidence of economically significant out-of-sample excess returns to those rules for each of six exchange
Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?
Filter, channel, and moving-average trading rules are compared with rules that use ARIMA price forecasts by evaluating their ex ante performance for currency futures transactions from December 1981
Filter Rules and Stock-Market Trading
IN THE recent literature there has been a considerable interest in the theory of random walks in stock-market prices. The basic hypothesis of the theory is that successive price changes in individual
Beating the Foreign Exchange Market
Filter rule profits found in foreign exchange markets in the early days of the current managed float persist in later periods, as shown by statistical tests developed and implemented here. The test
Advanced trading rules
Real Business Cycles and the Test of the Adelmans
Head and Shoulders: Not Just a Flaky Pattern
This paper evaluates rigorously the predictive power of the head-and-shoulders pattern as applied to daily exchange rates. Though such visual, nonlinear chart patterns are applied frequently by
...
...