Are Most Published Research Findings False?

@article{Diekmann2011AreMP,
  title={Are Most Published Research Findings False?},
  author={Andreas Diekmann},
  journal={Jahrb{\"u}cher f{\"u}r National{\"o}konomie und Statistik},
  year={2011},
  volume={231},
  pages={628 - 635}
}
  • A. Diekmann
  • Published 2011
  • Business
  • Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik
Summary In a provocative article Ioannidis (2005) argues that, in disciplines employing statistical tests of significance, professional journals report more wrong than true significant results. This short note sketches the argument and explores under what conditions the assertion holds. The “positive predictive value” (PPV) is lower than 1/2 if the a priori probability of the truth of a hypothesis is low. However, computation of the PPV includes only significant results. If both significant and… 

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