Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability ? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis

@inproceedings{Frankel2010AreLI,
  title={Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability ? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis},
  author={Jeffrey A. Frankel},
  year={2010}
}
This paper investigates whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the current crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators. The review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate are the two leading indicators that have proven the… CONTINUE READING
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