Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion

@article{Miller2018AreCR,
  title={Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion},
  author={Michael K. Miller and Michael F. Joseph and Dorothy Ohl},
  journal={Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  year={2018},
  volume={62},
  pages={410 - 441}
}
Protests and democratic transitions tend to spread cross-nationally. Is this true of all political events? We argue that the mechanisms underlying the diffusion of mass-participation events are unlikely to support the spread of elite-led violence, particularly coups. Further, past findings of coup contagion employed empirical techniques unable to distinguish clustering, common shocks, and actual diffusion. To investigate which events diffuse and where, we combine modern spatial dependence… 
View on SAGE
b2998732-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com
34 Citations
Background Citations
4

Figures from this paper

34 Citations

Citation Type

Citation Type

When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants
Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model…
The Varieties of Coups D’état: Introducing the Colpus Dataset
Interest in authoritarian politics and democratic breakdown has fueled a revival in scholarship on coups d'état. However, this research is held back by the fact that no global coup dataset…
Rethinking Democratic Diffusion: Bringing Regime Type Back In
Studies of democratic diffusion often emphasize geographic proximity: democratization in a country or region makes democratization nearby more likely. We argue that regime type has been…
Beyond Policy Diffusion: Spatial Econometric Models of Public Administration
Interdependence in the decision making or behaviors of various organizations and administrators is often neglected in the study of public administration. Failing to account for such interdependence…
Beyond Policy Diffusion: Spatial Econometric Models of Public Administration
Interdependence in the decision-making or behaviors of various organizations and administrators is often neglected in the study of public administration. Failing to account for such interdependence…
Essays on the Political Economy of International Trade and Coups
In this dissertation, I shed light on the nexus between coups and trade. I address three key questions. First, I examine whether all coup attempts, regardless of outcome, have the same effect on…
No Easy Way Out: The Effect of Military Coups on State Repression
Military coups are often advocated as solutions for ending state-sponsored atrocities. Yet, we know little about coups’ precise consequences. This article estimates the effect of coups on state…
Government termination in Europe: a sensitivity analysis
Abstract The aim of this article is to examine which factors robustly influence cabinet duration in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). In this respect the article investigates the role political…
Draft of chapter 4, “International Factors” For a second V-Dem volume, Michael Coppedge and Staffan I. Lindberg, eds., “What Do We Know About Democratization After 230 Years?” In progress
The other chapters of this book, like the majority of quantitative analyses of democratization, examine domestic determinants: geography, economic factors, institutions, and civil society. In this…
Correlates of Voter Turnout
Despite decades of research, there is no consensus as to the core correlates of national-level voter turnout. We argue that this is, in part, due to the lack of comprehensive, systematic empirical…
...
1
2
3
4
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 108 REFERENCES
Choosing Your Neighbors: Networks of Diffusion in International Relations
In examining the diffusion of social and political phenomena like regime transition, conflict, and policy change, scholars routinely make choices about how proximity is defined and which neighbors…
The Contagion of Political Unrest in Independent Black Africa
social communication network. The geographic scale within which such diffusion processes occur is localized. While less extensive, there also are some empirical studies that have dealt with the…
Modernization and Political Instability: Coups d'Etat in Africa 1955-85
This article studies African coups d'etat during the period from 1955 to 1985. It applies quantitative methods to the study of African history, and examines whether coups d'etat can be explained by…
Diffusion, Reinforcement, Geopolitics, and the Spread of War
The discussion reports the results of an examination of the possible diffusion of new war participations during the 1946–65 era. A theoretical argument is developed to yield more precise expectations…
When have violent civil conflicts spread? Introducing a dataset of substate conflict contagion
The spread, diffusion, spillover, or contagion of violent civil conflict – including insurgencies, coups, or other internal armed conflict – across international borders is of great concern to civil…
Of Dominoes and Firewalls: The Domestic, Regional, and Global Politics of International Diffusion
The Great Recession, Euro contagion, Middle East upheavals, nuclear proliferation, and expansion of rights, among others, highlight the centrality of diffusion to international studies. This…
The "Coup Contagion" Hypothesis
This paper attempts to examine the extent to which military coups in one country influence in some fashion the occurrence of coups in other countries. The examination is conducted primarily via the…
The Dynamics of Protest Diffusion: Movement Organizations, Social Networks, and News Media in the 1960 Sit-Ins
The wave of sit-ins that swept through the American South in the spring of 1960 transformed the struggle for racial equality. This episode is widely cited in the literature on social movements, but…
Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization
Democracy does not evolve sui generis. The spatial clustering in democracy and transitions suggests that international factors play a prominent role in forging democracies as well as influencing…
Toward a Structural Understanding of Coup Risk
Although coup risk plays an important role in theories of war, revolution, and democratization, scholars have not developed a rigorous conceptualization and valid measure of the concept. We develop a…
...
1
2
3
4
5
...