Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion

  title={Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion},
  author={Michael K. Miller and Michael F. Joseph and Dorothy Ohl},
  journal={Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  pages={410 - 441}
Protests and democratic transitions tend to spread cross-nationally. Is this true of all political events? We argue that the mechanisms underlying the diffusion of mass-participation events are unlikely to support the spread of elite-led violence, particularly coups. Further, past findings of coup contagion employed empirical techniques unable to distinguish clustering, common shocks, and actual diffusion. To investigate which events diffuse and where, we combine modern spatial dependence… 

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