The Unspecified Temporal Criminal Event: What is Unknown is Known with Aoristic Analysis and Multinomial Logistic Regression1
Temporal limitations of GIS databases are never more apparent than when the time of a change to any spatial object is unknown. This paper examines an unusual type of spatiotemporal imprecisionwhere an event occurs at a known location but at an unknown time. Aoristic analysis can provide a temporal weight and give an indication of the probability that the event occurred within a de ned period. Visualisation of temporal weights can be enhanced by modi cations to existing surface generation algorithms and a temporal intensity surface can be created. An example from burglaries in Central Nottingham (UK) shows that aoristic analysis can smooth irregularities arising from poor database interrogation, and provide an alternative conceptualisation of space and time that is both comprehensible and meaningful.