Anti-clustering in the national SARS-CoV-2 daily infection counts

@inproceedings{Roukema2021AnticlusteringIT,
  title={Anti-clustering in the national SARS-CoV-2 daily infection counts},
  author={Boudewijn F. Roukema},
  year={2021}
}
The noise in daily infection counts of an epidemic should be super-Poissonian due to intrinsic epidemiological and administrative clustering. Here, we use this clustering to classify the official national SARS-CoV-2 daily infection counts and check for infection counts that are unusually anti-clustered. We adopt a one-parameter model of $φ'_i$ infections per cluster, dividing any daily count $n_i$ into $n_i/φ'_i$ 'clusters', for 'country' $i$. We assume that $n_i/φ'_i$ on a given day $j$ is… 
Who Manipulates Data During Pandemics? Evidence From Newcomb-Benford Law
TLDR
It is found that democratic countries, countries with the higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcare expenditures, and better universal healthcare coverage are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law.
Underdispersion: A statistical anomaly in reported Covid data
  • D. Kobak
  • Medicine
    Significance (Oxford, England)
  • 2022
TLDR
In some countries, the reported numbers show very little movement over days and weeks – they are “underdispersed”, says Dmitry Kobak, and this may be a sign that all is not right with the data.

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 110 REFERENCES
Prediction Regions for Poisson and Over-Dispersed Poisson Regression Models with Applications in Forecasting the Number of Deaths during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Abstract Motivated by the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which is due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the important problem of forecasting the number of daily deaths and the number of
Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China.
TLDR
The finding of a highly-overdispersed offspring distribution highlights a potential benefit to focusing intervention efforts on superspreading, as most infected individuals do not contribute to the expansion of an epidemic, the effective reproduction number could be drastically reduced by preventing relatively rare superspreaders.
Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence
TLDR
It is shown that contact tracing data from eight directly transmitted diseases shows that the distribution of individual infectiousness around R0 is often highly skewed, and implications for outbreak control are explored, showing that individual-specific control measures outperform population-wide measures.
Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control
TLDR
The variation of the individual infectiousness of coronavirus disease 2019, quantified by the number of secondary cases of a typical index case, is calculated at 0.70, suggesting that COVID-19 infection is relatively easy to sustain in the population and more challenging to control.
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
TLDR
It is estimated that 86% of all infections were undocumented before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions, which explains the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicates that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
Diverse local epidemics reveal the distinct effects of population density, demographics, climate, depletion of susceptibles, and intervention in the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States
TLDR
A few regions, where a significant fraction of the population was infected, show evidence that the epidemic has partially resolved via depletion of the susceptible population (i.e., "herd immunity"), while most regions in the United States remain overwhelmingly susceptible.
COVID-19, flattening the curve, and Benford’s law
Estimation of incubation period and serial interval of COVID-19: analysis of 178 cases and 131 transmission chains in Hubei province, China
TLDR
The results suggest a considerable proportion of secondary transmission occurred prior to symptom onset, and the current practice of 14-day quarantine period in many regions is reasonable.
Monitoring COVID‐19 contagion growth
TLDR
The proposed model describes the evolution of contagion dynamics and determines whether contagion growth can be affected by health policies, and can draw two health policy conclusions that can be useful for all countries in the world.
Who Manipulates Data During Pandemics? Evidence From Newcomb-Benford Law
TLDR
It is found that democratic countries, countries with the higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcare expenditures, and better universal healthcare coverage are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law.
...
1
2
3
4
5
...