Anatomy of a Project to Produce a First Nuclear Weapon

@article{Harney2006AnatomyOA,
  title={Anatomy of a Project to Produce a First Nuclear Weapon},
  author={R. Harney and G. Brown and M. Carlyle and Eric M. Skroch and Kevin Wood},
  journal={Science \& Global Security},
  year={2006},
  volume={14},
  pages={163 - 182}
}
We describe the industrial project that a “proliferator” would conduct to produce a first, small batch of nuclear weapons. From refining yellowcake ore to final weapons assembly, we highlight the project's tasks and their interactions. The proliferator can choose alternative production technologies that offer quicker completion, but at higher cost in terms of limited resources. The proliferator can also expedite his project by devoting more resources to critical tasks. From physics and… Expand
Interdicting a Nuclear-Weapons Project
TLDR
A max-min model is developed and solved that identifies resource-limited interdiction actions that maximally delay completion time of the proliferators' weapons project, given that the proliferator will observe any such actions and adjust his plans to minimize that time. Expand
The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
This critical review of the new political science literature on the causes of nuclear weapons proliferation consists of seven parts. The first section briefly presents what we know about which statesExpand
Managing a Secret Project
We consider the problem of scheduling a project when there is an adversary from whom you want to conceal the project’s progress. Interfering with the progress by the adversary is called interdiction.Expand
Methodological aspects on the IAEA State Level Concept and related Acquisition Path Analysis
TLDR
Process modifications are proposed to improve pathways characterization supporting the SLC, such as developing a sounder basis for technical plausibility, formalizing considerations of intrinsic technical difficulty, assessing uncertainties in collected information and issuing guidance on omitted SSFs that may influence pathway completion times. Expand
Nuclear Power, Nuclear Proliferation and the NPT
Will the spread of nuclear power to new states lead to the spread of nuclear weapons? I argue that the answer will depend on which states get nuclear power, which states acquire sensitive nuclearExpand
The potential of open source information in supporting Acquisition Pathway Analysis to design IAEA State Level Approaches
TLDR
An overview of how the use of open source information can support the design and implementation of State Level Approaches is provided, to identify the plausible routes for acquiring weaponsusable material and to assess their safeguards significance. Expand
Technical Note - Managing a Secret Project
TLDR
A new form of project management problem for secret projects where the project manager uses a combination of deception, task scheduling, and crashing to minimize the time between when the adversary initiates a response to the project to when the project is completed. Expand
Timely exposure of a secret project: Which activities to monitor?
TLDR
This work model the situation as a zero‐sum game, establishes that a late‐start schedule defines a dominant attacker strategy, and describes a dynamic program that yields a Nash equilibrium for the zero-sum game. Expand
Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: The Next Step in Multilateral Arms Control
This paper by Crispin Rovere and Kalman A Robertson addresses the many barriers to including tactical nuclear weapons in disarmament talks. It considers the difficulty of bringing other emergingExpand
Remote assessment of countries’ nuclear, biological, and cyber capabilities: joint motivation and latent capability approach
TLDR
This work adapts Friedkin’s socio-cultural model of influence and group dynamics to illustrate how countries are motivated to develop WMD using data on international hostilities, alliances, and expert opinion. Expand
...
1
2
3
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 13 REFERENCES
Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation
This paper describes the development and application of a technique for measuring and controlling development progress for the Polaris Fleet Ballistic Missile program, Special Projects Office, BureauExpand
The Making of the Atomic Bomb
With a brand new introduction from the author, this is the complete story of how the bomb was developed. It is told in rich, human, political, and scientific detail, from the turn-of-the-centuryExpand
Critical-Path Planning and Scheduling: Mathematical Basis
TLDR
The essential ingredient of the technique is a mathematical model that incorporates sequence information, durations, and costs for each component of the project that is a special parametric linear program that may be solved efficiently by network flow methods. Expand
Decision CPM: A Method for Simultaneous Planning, Scheduling, and Control of Projects
TLDR
DCPM is a method for formally considering the interaction between the scheduling and the planning phases of a project, where there are a number of competing methods of performing some of the jobs and the alternatives that minimize this cost are selected. Expand
Nuclear Chemical Engineering
The branch of chemical engineering that deals with the production and use of radioisotopes, nuclear …
"J."
however (for it was the literal soul of the life of the Redeemer, John xv. io), is the peculiar token of fellowship with the Redeemer. That love to God (what is meant here is not God’s love to men)Expand
G
  • Perkovich, J. T. Mathews, J. Cirincione, R. Gottemoeller, and J. Wolfsthal, Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Nuclear Security (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), J. Spector, “Strategic Planning for U.S. Nonproliferation Initiatives in Russia,” in Occasional Paper No. 6, WMD Threa
  • 2001
ed., “Technology R&D for arms control,
  • Arms Control and Nonproliferation Technologies (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
  • 2001
Microsoft Office
R
  • Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (Simon & Schuster Inc., New York, 1986) and R. Rhodes, Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb
  • 1995
...
1
2
...