13 Citations
Recent developments in multivariate wind and solar power forecasting
- Environmental ScienceWIREs Energy and Environment
- 2022
The intermittency of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, means that they require reliable and accurate forecasts to integrate properly into energy systems. This review introduces and…
A review of probabilistic forecasting and prediction with machine learning
- Computer ScienceArXiv
- 2022
The topic of predictive uncertainty estimation with machine learning algorithms, as well as the related metrics (consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules) for assessing probabilistic predictions are reviewed, sparking understanding on how to develop new algorithms tailored to users’ needs.
Probabilistic forecast reconciliation: Properties, evaluation and score optimisation
- Computer ScienceEur. J. Oper. Res.
- 2023
onlineforecast: An R package for adaptive and recursive forecasting
- Computer Science
- 2021
The R package onlineforecast is presented that provides a generalized setup of data and models for online forecasting that has functionality for time-adaptive shifting of dynamical and non-linear models.
Data-driven uncertainty quantification for constrained stochastic differential equations and application to solar photovoltaic power forecast data
- Mathematics
- 2023
In this work, we extend the data-driven It\^{o} stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework for the pathwise assessment of short-term forecast errors to account for the time-dependent upper…
Interpretable Deep Learning for Probabilistic MJO Prediction
- Environmental ScienceGeophysical Research Letters
- 2022
The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of sub‐seasonal variability in the tropics. It consists of an Eastward moving region of enhanced convection coupled to changes in zonal…
The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling
- EconomicsInternational Journal of Forecasting
- 2022
References
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Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds
- Environmental Science
- 2008
We discuss methods for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions of vector-valued quantities, that can take the form of a discrete forecast ensemble or a density forecast. In particular, we propose…
Non‐parametric probabilistic forecasts of wind power: required properties and evaluation
- Environmental Science
- 2007
Predictions of wind power production for horizons up to 48-72 h ahead comprise a highly valuable input to the methods for the daily management or trading of wind generation. Today, users of wind…
Leveraging stochastic differential equations for probabilistic forecasting of wind power using a dynamic power curve
- Environmental Science, Engineering
- 2017
Short-term (hours to days) probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation provide useful information about the associated uncertainty of these forecasts. Standard probabilistic forecasts are…
Variogram-Based Proper Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts of Multivariate Quantities*
- Mathematics
- 2015
AbstractProper scoring rules provide a theoretically principled framework for the quantitative assessment of the predictive performance of probabilistic forecasts. While a wide selection of such…
Probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance using stochastic differential equations
- Environmental Science, Mathematics
- 2014
Probabilistic forecasts of renewable energy production provide users with valuable information about the uncertainty associated with the expected generation. Current state‐of‐the‐art forecasts for…
Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation by Stochastic Differential Equation Models
- Environmental Science
- 2016
The increasing penetration of wind power has resulted in larger shares of volatile sources of supply in power systems worldwide. In order to operate such systems efficiently, methods for reliable…
Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry
- Environmental Science
- 2017
Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The…
Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Coupling
- Environmental Science, Computer Science
- 2013
It is shown that seemingly unrelated, recent advances can be interpreted, fused and consolidated within the framework of ECC, the common thread being the adoption of the empirical copula of the raw ensemble.