An exploration of alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty in model predictions

@article{Helton2004AnEO,
  title={An exploration of alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty in model predictions},
  author={Jon C. Helton and Jay D. Johnson and William Oberkampf},
  journal={Rel. Eng. & Sys. Safety},
  year={2004},
  volume={85},
  pages={39-71}
}
Several simple test problems are used to explore the following approaches to the representation of the uncertainty in model predictions that derives from uncertainty in model inputs: probability theory, evidence theory, possibility theory, and interval analysis. Each of the test problems has rather diffuse characterizations of the uncertainty in model inputs obtained from one or more equally credible sources. These given uncertainty characterizations are translated into the mathematical… CONTINUE READING
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