An evaluation of the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation and output growth

@inproceedings{Clements2002AnEO,
title={An evaluation of the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation and output growth},
author={Michael P. Clements},
year={2002}
}

Regression-based tests of forecast probabilities of particular events of interest are constructed. The event forecast probabilities are derived from the SPF density forecasts of expected inflation and output growth. Tests of the event probabilities supplement statistically-based assessments of the forecast densities using the probability integral transform approach. The regression-based tests assess whether the forecast probabilities of particular events are equal to the true probabilities, and… CONTINUE READING