An ensemble approach to short‐term forecast of COVID‐19 intensive care occupancy in Italian regions

  title={An ensemble approach to short‐term forecast of COVID‐19 intensive care occupancy in Italian regions},
  author={Alessio Farcomeni and Antonello Maruotti and Fabio Divino and Giovanna Jona-Lasinio and Gianfranco Lovison},
  journal={Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift},
  pages={503 - 513}
The availability of intensive care beds during the COVID‐19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short‐term prediction of COVID‐19 intensive care unit (ICU) beds, that has proved very effective during the Italian outbreak in February to May 2020. Our approach is based on an optimal ensemble of two simple methods: a generalized linear mixed regression model, which pools information over different… 
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