An approximately Bayesian delta-rule model explains the dynamics of belief updating in a changing environment.

@article{Nassar2010AnAB,
  title={An approximately Bayesian delta-rule model explains the dynamics of belief updating in a changing environment.},
  author={Matthew R. Nassar and Robert C. Wilson and Benjamin S Heasly and Joshua I. Gold},
  journal={The Journal of neuroscience : the official journal of the Society for Neuroscience},
  year={2010},
  volume={30 37},
  pages={12366-78}
}
Maintaining appropriate beliefs about variables needed for effective decision making can be difficult in a dynamic environment. One key issue is the amount of influence that unexpected outcomes should have on existing beliefs. In general, outcomes that are unexpected because of a fundamental change in the environment should carry more influence than outcomes that are unexpected because of persistent environmental stochasticity. Here we use a novel task to characterize how well human subjects… CONTINUE READING
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