An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number

@inproceedings{Fisman2013AnIF,
  title={An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number},
  author={David N. Fisman and Tanya S. Hauck and Ashleigh R Tuite and Amy L Greer},
  booktitle={PloS one},
  year={2013}
}
BACKGROUND Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that… CONTINUE READING

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An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling

  • E Vynnycky, RG White
  • 2010
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