• Corpus ID: 2849592

An Empirical Comparison of Algorithms for Aggregating Expert Predictions

@article{Dani2006AnEC,
  title={An Empirical Comparison of Algorithms for Aggregating Expert Predictions},
  author={Varsha Dani and Omid Madani and David M. Pennock and Sumit K. Sanghai and Brian Galebach},
  journal={ArXiv},
  year={2006},
  volume={abs/1206.6814}
}
Predicting the outcomes of future events is a challenging problem for which a variety of solution methods have been explored and attempted. We present an empirical comparison of a variety of online and offline adaptive algorithms for aggregating experts' predictions of the outcomes of five years of US National Football League games (1319 games) using expert probability elicitations obtained from an Internet contest called ProbabilitySports. We find that it is difficult to improve over simple… 

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