An Economic Model of the Planning Fallacy

@article{Brunnermeier2008AnEM,
  title={An Economic Model of the Planning Fallacy},
  author={Markus K. Brunnermeier and Filippos Papakonstantinou and Jonathan A. Parker},
  journal={Public Choice: Public Goods eJournal},
  year={2008}
}
People tend to underestimate the work involved in completing tasks and consequently finish tasks later than expected or do an inordinate amount of work right before projects are due. We present a theory in which people underpredict and procrastinate because the ex-ante utility benefits of anticipating that a task will be easy to complete outweigh the average ex-post costs of poor planning. We show that, given a commitment device, people self-impose deadlines that are binding but require less… 
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