Al Qaeda, the Organization: A Five-Year Forecast

  title={Al Qaeda, the Organization: A Five-Year Forecast},
  author={Peter L. Bergen},
  journal={The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science},
  pages={14 - 30}
  • Peter L. Bergen
  • Published 1 July 2008
  • Political Science
  • The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science
Al Qaeda today is a resilient organization, as evidenced by the London attacks of 2005, its resurgence in Pakistan, the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, and its influence on the war in Iraq. While al Qaeda is not strong enough to launch an attack inside the United States in the next five years, it will continue to train militants for successful attacks in Europe. Al Qaeda's leadership is likely to remain in place for years, and it is unlikely to lose its safe haven on the Afghan… 

Decentralised Leadership in Contemporary Jihadism: Towards a Global Social Movement

On October 19 th 2003, nearly six months after the outset of the invasion of Iraq by US troops, a video was released by al-Qaeda media arm al-Sahab showing Osama bin Laden directly threatening Spain.

Views on National Security in the Middle East

Unlike much of the rest of the world, government policy toward national security in the Middle East has generally been determined by decisions made by countries outside of the region. The Middle

Terrorism in Pakistan: Incident patterns, terrorists' characteristics, and the impact of terrorist arrests on terrorism

This dissertation, in a 3-paper format, uses three data sets to study three aspects of terrorism in Pakistan. In the first paper, using data from the GTD, I describe empirically the temporal and

Bayʿa: succession, allegiance, and rituals of legitimization in the Islamic world

Bayʿa: Succession, Allegiance, and Rituals of Legitimization in the Islamic World presents a comprehensive overview of the origins and evolution of the ritual of bayʿa, or the Islamic oath of

Al Qaeda as a charismatic phenomenon

Abstract : This thesis examines the hypothesis that the presence of charismatic effect in terrorist or insurgent groups tends to make them more violent. Raymond Bradley's theory forms the backbone of

“Maternal thinking” and the concept of “vulnerability” in security paradigms, policies, and practices

This article takes as its starting point Sara Ruddick’s discussion of “vulnerability” in her 1989 groundbreaking book Maternal Thinking: Toward a Politics of Peace. It examines the kind of thinking

The Primacy of the Local: Identifying Terrorist Hot Spots Using Geographic Information Systems

Despite the wide range of studies focused on the causes of terrorism, most use the state as the unit of analysis. Doing so, however, overlooks important variation that occurs within the state. Our

‘The Capability Spectrum; Locating Terrorism in Relation to other Manifestations of Political Violence.’

Terrorism is often discussed in isolation from other manifestations of political violence; however, significant understanding of the phenomenon can be gained by assessing terrorism in relation to the

Fighting Tomorrow's Fire Today: Leveraging Intelligence for Scenario-Based Exercise Design

Abstract : There is a great opportunity for collaborative learning when agencies conduct emergency preparedness exercises together. If different members of the community contribute to the development

Djihadismus nach dem Arabischen Frühling und das Vermittlungsangebot Muhammad al-Zawahiris

ZusammenfassungDer Djihadismus seit 2011 hat sich strukturell und strategisch grundlegend verändert. So ist heute einerseits ein Bedeutungsverlust der Kernorganisation al-Qaida festzustellen,



Europe's Angry Muslims

Fox NEWS and CNN'S Lou Dobbs worry about terrorists stealing across the United States' border with Mexico concealed among illegal immigrants. The Pentagon wages war in the Middle East to stop

Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Osama bin Laden

On September 11, 2001, the world in which we live was changed forever. The twin towers of the World Trade Center came crashing down, one side of the Pentagon burst into flame, and more than six

The Osama bin Laden I Know: An Oral History of al Qaeda's Leader

No one knows more about Osama bin Laden than Peter Bergen. In 1997, well before the West suddenly became aware of the world's most sought-after terrorist, Bergen met with him and has followed his

The madrassa scapegoat

A national security policy focused on madrassas as a principal source of terrorism is misguided. A careful examination of the 79 terrorists responsible for five of the worst anti‐Western terrorist

Understanding terror networks.

  • M. Sageman
  • Political Science
    International journal of emergency mental health
  • 2005
The origins of the Jihad, the Mujahedin, and social networks and the Jihad: Names of Terrorists Glossary of Foreign-Language Terms are reviewed.

Five years on

  • W. Bonfield
  • Education
    Journal of The Royal Society Interface
  • 2009
This issue marks the fifth anniversary of the launch of Journal of the Royal Society Interface and it became apparent that the traditional distinction between the physical sciences, including mathematics, and the biological sciences was becoming ever more blurred.

Just the beginning

The Osama bin Laden I Know