Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study

  title={Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study},
  author={R{\"u}diger F. Pohl and Ute J Bayen and Nina R Arnold and Tina Auer and Claudia Martin},
  journal={Journal of Cognition and Development},
  pages={278 - 300}
ABSTRACT Hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s prior knowledge of a fact or event after learning the actual fact. Recent research has suggested that age-related differences in hindsight bias may be based on age-related differences in inhibitory control. We tested whether this explanation held for 3 cognitive processes assumed to underlie hindsight bias: recollection bias, reconstruction bias, and the tendency to adopt newly acquired knowledge as old. We performed a typical… 
Hindsight bias in metamemory: outcome knowledge influences the recollection of judgments of learning
It is demonstrated that people overestimate the accuracy of their memory predictions in hindsight, which produces a hindsight bias on Judgments of Learning (JOLs).
Fluency misattribution and auditory hindsight bias
It is concluded that misattribution of fluency accounts for auditory hindsight bias, and this finding suggests that both auditory hindsight biased and repetition priming contribute to a common process, which is proposed involves a misattributed of processing fluency.
Hindsight Bias and Electoral Outcomes: Satisfaction Counts More Than Winner-Loser Status
The tendency to perceive outcomes as more foreseeable once they are available is a well-known phenomenon. However, research on the cognitive and motivational factors that induce individuals to
Only Familiar Information is a "Curse": Children's Ability to Predict What Their Peers Know.
Light is shed on the mechanisms underlying perspective taking, supporting a fluency misattribution account of the curse of knowledge, in children's estimates of their peers' knowledge.
Dynamics of Rater Differences in Assessing the Age Appropriateness of Media Content: A Multilevel Moderated Mediation Analysis
  • G. Feng, Sha Zhu
  • Psychology
    Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media
  • 2022
ABSTRACT Using data obtained from the Common Sense Media website, this study aimed to examine the dynamics that cause differences in age ratings of media content. The study revealed significant
Hindsight Bias: Why We Think We Are Good Predictors Even Though We Are Not
Auditory hindsight bias in school-age children


Hindsight bias in younger and older adults: the role of access control
  • J. Groß, U. Bayen
  • Psychology
    Neuropsychology, development, and cognition. Section B, Aging, neuropsychology and cognition
  • 2015
Evidence for the effect of CJ access on hindsight bias was weak and more pronounced in younger than in older adults, and an instructional manipulation to ignore the CJ affected fixations and hindsight bias.
Hindsight bias from 3 to 95 years of age.
The first study to trace the development of hindsight bias across the life span is reported, finding preschoolers' enhanced hindsight bias resulted from them substituting the correct answer for their original answer in their recall and older adults'Enhanced hindsight bias came from them forgetting their originalanswer and recalling an answer closer to, but not equal to, the correctanswer.
Inhibitory control underlies individual differences in older adults' hindsight bias.
The findings revealed that outcome rehearsal increased recollection bias independently of individuals' cognitive abilities, and support the role of inhibitory control in older adults' HB and suggest that even individuals with higher inhibition ability are susceptible to HB when processing resources are limited.
Adult age differences in hindsight bias: The role of recall ability.
Results support a recall-based explanation of age differences in hindsight bias and reveal that biased reconstruction of original judgments was equally likely in both age groups when recall ofOriginal judgments was lowered in young adults via a manipulation of retention interval.
Surprise, memory, and retrospective judgment making: testing cognitive reconstruction theories of the hindsight bias effect.
  • Ivan Ash
  • Psychology
    Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition
  • 2009
A review of 4 competing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias revealed conflicting predictions about the role and effect of expectation or surprise in retrospective judgment formation, which were interpreted as supporting the general predictions of sense-making models of the hindsight bias.
We propose that hindsight bias in adults and some limitations in children's “theory of mind” (ToM), or mental–state reasoning, share a core cognitive constraint: a tendency to be biased by one's
The interplay of memory and judgment processes in effects of aging on hindsight bias.
Multinomial model-based analyses show age differences in both recollection bias and reconstruction bias when the correct judgment was in working memory during the recall phase.
Outcome knowledge can affect hindsight judgments in two different ways. First, learning about the outcome of an event can impair recollection of one's own earlier predictions concerning this event.
Explaining individual differences in cognitive processes underlying hindsight bias
The results show that working memory capacity and inhibitory control, respectively, drive individual differences in recollection bias and reconstruction bias, particularly in older adults.
Hindsight bias and developing theories of mind.
In two experiments involving 144 preschoolers, 3-, 4-, and 5-year olds exhibited strong hindsight bias, and performance on hindsight and ToM tasks was significantly correlated independent of age, language ability, and inhibitory control.