Adaptive selection and validation of models of complex systems in the presence of uncertainty


This paper describes versions of OPAL, the Occam-Plausibility Algorithm (Farrell et al. in J Comput Phys 295:189–208, 2015) in which the use of Bayesian model plausibilities is replaced with information-theoretic methods, such as the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. Applications to complex systems of coarse-grained… (More)


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