Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo forward projection for statistical analysis in epidemic modelling of human papillomavirus

  title={Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo forward projection for statistical analysis in epidemic modelling of human papillomavirus},
  author={Igor A. Korostil and Gareth W. Peters and Julien Cornebise and David Gabriel Regan},
  journal={Statistics in Medicine},
A Bayesian statistical model and estimation methodology based on forward projection adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo is developed in order to perform the calibration of a high‐dimensional nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations representing an epidemic model for human papillomavirus types 6 and 11 (HPV‐6, HPV‐11). The model is compartmental and involves stratification by age, gender and sexual‐activity group. Developing this model and a means to calibrate it efficiently is relevant… 
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