Accurate and precise estimates of origination and extinction rates

  title={Accurate and precise estimates of origination and extinction rates},
  author={John Alroy},
  • J. Alroy
  • Published in Paleobiology 7 May 2014
  • Environmental Science
Abstract Paleobiologists have used many different methods for estimating rates of origination and extinction. Unfortunately, all equations that consider entire age ranges are distorted by the Pull of the Recent, the Signor-Lipps effect, and simple edge effects. Attention has been paid recently to an equation of Foote's that considers counts of taxa either crossing the bottom and top of an interval or crossing one boundary but not the other. This generalized boundary-crosser (BC) method has… 

A more precise speciation and extinction rate estimator

  • J. Alroy
  • Environmental Science
  • 2015
A new turnover rate metric is introduced that combines simplicity and precision and yields values that are highly correlated with those produced by the gap-filler equation but more precise in simulation.

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A major update of the software PyRate is presented, which implements substantial methodological advancements, including more complex and realistic models of preservation, a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate origination and extinction rates and their temporal variation, and a substantial boost in performance.

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An FBD model is presented that estimates of tree-wide diversification rates from stratigraphic range data when the underlying phylogeny of the fossil taxa may be unknown, and is robust and more accurate than the alternative methods, particularly when fossil data are sparse.

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  • J. Alroy
  • Environmental Science
  • 2020
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  • P. Wagner
  • Environmental Science, Geography
  • 2019
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Abstract Deciphering the timing of lineage diversification and extinction has greatly benefited in the last decade from methodological developments in fossil-based analyses. If these advances are

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Constant extinction, constrained diversification, and uncoordinated stasis in North American mammals

  • J. Alroy
  • Environmental Science, Geography
  • 1996

Origination and extinction components of taxonomic diversity: general problems

  • M. Foote
  • Environmental Science, Geography
  • 2000
Modeling supports intuitive and empirical arguments that single-interval taxa, being especially sensitive to variation in preservation and interval length, produce many undesirable distortions of the fossil record, and suggests which rate measures are likely to be most accurate in principle.

Speciation and extinction in the fossil record of North American mammals

Paleontological research has focused far more strongly on taxonomic diversity than on speciation in recent years, and turnover rates have focused on two overriding issues: whether they can be explained using intrinsic dynamic mechanisms, such as either density dependence or constraints on morphology.

Dynamics of origination and extinction in the marine fossil record

  • J. Alroy
  • Environmental Science, Geography
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 2008
The discipline-wide effort to database the fossil record at the occurrence level has made it possible to estimate marine invertebrate extinction and origination rates with much greater accuracy. The

Geographical, environmental and intrinsic biotic controls on Phanerozoic marine diversification

  • J. Alroy
  • Environmental Science, Geography
  • 2010
Abstract:  The Paleobiology Database now includes enough data on fossil collections to produce useful time series of geographical and environmental variables in addition to a robust global

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These models should prove useful in paleobiological analyses because they permit estimation of sampling variances, and goodness-of-fit tests are available for assessing the fit of data to most models.

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Many areas of paleobiological research require reliable extinction metrics. Branching-and-extinction simulations and data on Phanerozoic marine families and genera are used to investigate the

Geographic variation in turnover and recovery from the Late Ordovician mass extinction

Abstract Understanding what drives global diversity requires knowledge of the processes that control diversity and turnover at a variety of geographic and temporal scales. This is of particular