Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote

  title={Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote},
  author={Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong and Randall J. Jones and Alfred G. Cuz{\'a}n},
  journal={PS: Political Science \& Politics},
  pages={427 - 431}
ABSTRACT We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when… 

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