Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability

  title={Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability},
  author={John Turner and Hua Lu and Ian P. White and John C. King and Tony Phillips and J. Scott Hosking and Thomas J. Bracegirdle and Gareth J. Marshall and Robert Mulvaney and Pranab Deb},
Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers, disintegration of floating ice shelves and a ‘greening’ through the expansion in range of various flora. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion, local sea-ice loss, an increase in… 

The Springtime Influence of Natural Tropical Pacific Variability on the Surface Climate of the Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica: Implications for Ice Shelf Thinning

During the austral spring season, significant surface warming across West Antarctica has shifted westward to the Ross Ice Shelf in recent decades in response to enhanced cyclonic circulation over the Ross Sea, which is tied to the springtime shift of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to its negative phase after 1992.

The Antarctic Peninsula Under a 1.5°C Global Warming Scenario

Warming of the Antarctic Peninsula in the latter half of the 20th century was greater than any other terrestrial environment in the Southern Hemisphere, and obvious cryospheric and biological

Southward migration of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds corresponds with warming climate over centennial timescales

Recent changes in the strength and location of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) have been linked to continental droughts and wildfires, changes in the Southern Ocean carbon sink, sea ice

Rapid change in East Antarctic terrestrial vegetation in response to regional drying

East Antarctica has shown little evidence of warming to date1–3 with no coherent picture of how climate change is affecting vegetation4–6. In stark contrast, the Antarctic Peninsula experienced some

Tropical teleconnection impacts on Antarctic climate changes

Over the modern satellite era, substantial climatic changes have been observed in the Antarctic, including atmospheric and oceanic warming, ice sheet thinning and a general Antarctic-wide expansion

Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades

Over the last three decades, the South Pole has experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade, more than three times the global average. Here, we use an

Role of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in West Antarctic Decadal Climate Variability

Regional atmospheric circulation along coastal West Antarctica associated with the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) mediates ice shelf melt that governs Antarctica's contribution to global sea level rise. In

Ocean temperature impact on ice shelf extent in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Ocean warming contributes to the thinning of the Antarctic ice shelves, however, lack of observations has prevented a quantification of this contribution, and geological records are used to show that 0.3–1.5 °C ocean warming has played a central role on regional ice shelf instability over the last 9000 years.

Winter climate change on the northern and southern Antarctic Peninsula

Abstract Differences in the decadal trend in the winter surface temperature in the northern and southern Antarctic Peninsula have been analysed. Time series from the two stations Esperanza and



The Impact of a Changing Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on Antarctic Peninsula Summer Temperatures

Since the mid-1960s, rapid regional summer warming has occurred on the east coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula, with near-surface temperatures increasing by more than 2 degrees C. This warming

The impact of changes in sea ice advance on the large winter warming on the western Antarctic Peninsula

Over 1979–2007 near‐surface air temperatures on the maritime western side of the Antarctic Peninsula have increased throughout the year, with the greatest monthly temperature rise of 1.7 °C dec−1

Temperature Change on the Antarctic Peninsula Linked to the Tropical Pacific

AbstractSignificant summer warming over the eastern Antarctic Peninsula in the last 50 years has been attributed to a strengthening of the circumpolar westerlies, widely believed to be anthropogenic

Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history

Warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse, and continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely

Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice

It is suggested that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

A 308 year record of climate variability in West Antarctica

We present a new stable isotope record from Ellsworth Land which provides a valuable 308 year record (1702–2009) of climate variability from coastal West Antarctica. Climate variability at this site

Attribution of polar warming to human influence

Polar temperatures have been warming significantly over the past few decades. A comparison between observational temperature records and model simulations shows that temperature changes in both the

The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification

It is shown that the Arctic warming is strongest at the surface during most of the year and is primarily consistent with reductions in sea ice cover, and suggests that strong positive ice–temperature feedbacks have emerged in the Arctic, increasing the chances of further rapid warming and sea ice loss.

Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

Evidence is presented that recent trends in the SH tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as a bias toward the high-index polarity of this pattern, with stronger westerly flow encircling the polar cap.